Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$6.3K
$1.6K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
16 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chongchongpanda | Noavg 80.2¢ | $4.4K | $5.1K | +$719.28 | 76% 16-5 (21) |
MI milkteabobaCTR | Yes | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$923.17 | 69% 38-17 (55) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $140.57 | $130.98 | -$11.46 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $2.07 | $2.21 | +$0.06 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
GO Gourmet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $3.6 | $2.08 | -$1.59 | 47% 163-187 (350) |
Invested
$4,391.03
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$719.28
Record
76%
16-5 (21)
Invested
$1,036.92
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$923.17
Record
69%
38-17 (55)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$140.57
Value
$130.98
PnL
-$11.46
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$2.07
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.06
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.08
PnL
-$1.59
Record
47%
163-187 (350)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.