Consensus PnL -$102K · win rate 50% (65–66, n=131) · PM monthly #270 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-101.8K
Record
65W / 66L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 131 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1773
Source
PM monthly #270
Trades
94
Markets
145
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $36K · now 36¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $75 · now 94¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
Specialties
137 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 51¢- NFL
+9 pts
side won 56% of 16 · avg entry 47¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 21% of 19 at an average 48¢ entry (−27 pts against the price), ROI −33%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 16% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 35% of 48)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 56% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 77% of 31)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.