Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

14 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $137K held · ended Oct 28

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$136.8K

Combined PnL

-$233.58

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 94.3¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 35 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$122.7K

Total Shares132,065

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Yes21 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares261,288

Combined PnL$-2.9K

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

202 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 15

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 28

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 93.6¢	$73.4K	$72.7K	+$854.11	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
GoriIIa	Noavg 89.5¢	$24.3K	$25.3K	+$1.4K	73% 229-85 (314)
NO notgoodluck	Noavg 94¢	$14.1K	$13.9K	+$97.5	61% 212-133 (345)
LI lissartter	Noavg 94.8¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$6.1	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$215.8	35% 35-64 (99)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 7¢	$3.5K	$2.7K	-$825	39% 196-304 (500)
CA cashyCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	-$742.4	71% 611-250 (861)
AF aff3	Noavg 90¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$93.48	80% 171-44 (215)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 3.6¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$505.78	46% 271-319 (590)
probability	Noavg 84.1¢	$997.99	$1.1K	+$149.21	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
SS ssddssd	Noavg 95¢	$950	$929	-$3.5	52% 338-316 (654)
MA Marioy	Noavg 88¢	$880	$929	+$67	81% 250-58 (308)
siick	Noavg 93¢	$871.68	$870.74	+$15.47	57% 767-580 (1347)
11 11122ARB<$100	Noavg 90¢	$698.79	$763.84	+$65.05	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
└ No leg	Noavg 90¢	$449.76	$464.5	+$13.5
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.2¢	$330.74	$299.35	+$51.55
mr.oziCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$773.06	$599.46	-$173.61	68% 1239-582 (1821)
TY TyatsmrCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$887.27	$595.74	-$209.14	47% 255-282 (537)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 83.9¢	$544.94	$552.6	+$7.66	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 8¢	$800	$539	-$238.76	36% 190-333 (523)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$442.43	$498.65	+$56.22	37% 566-944 (1510)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 94.6¢	$397.48	$400.74	+$3.26	59% 986-684 (1670)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 93¢	$267.71	$272.61	+$4.9	38% 20-32 (52)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 7.1¢	$261.35	$247.32	-$14.03	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$360.16	$235	-$125.16	46% 1978-2360 (4338)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$350	$235	-$82.5	36% 397-691 (1088)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 16.4¢	$113.34	$182.34	+$69	36% 2085-3721 (5806)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$73,354.43

Value

$72.7K

PnL

+$854.11

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

GoriIIa

Invested

$24,333.29

Value

$25.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

notgoodluck

Invested

$14,099.96

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$97.5

Record

61%

212-133 (345)

lissartter

Invested

$3,785.48

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$6.1

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,628.6

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$215.8

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,499.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$825

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

cashyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,953.32

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$742.4

Record

71%

611-250 (861)

aff3

Invested

$1,790.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$93.48

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,015.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$505.78

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

probability

Invested

$997.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$149.21

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ssddssd

Invested

$950

Value

$929

PnL

-$3.5

Record

52%

338-316 (654)

Marioy

Invested

$880

Value

$929

PnL

+$67

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

siick

Invested

$871.68

Value

$870.74

PnL

+$15.47

Record

57%

767-580 (1347)

11122ARB<$100

Invested

$698.79

Value

$763.84

PnL

+$65.05

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

Both legs:

No$449.7690¢+$13.5

Yes$330.745.2¢+$51.55

mr.oziCTR

Yes

Invested

$773.06

Value

$599.46

PnL

-$173.61

Record

68%

1239-582 (1821)

TyatsmrCTR

Yes

Invested

$887.27

Value

$595.74

PnL

-$209.14

Record

47%

255-282 (537)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$544.94

Value

$552.6

PnL

+$7.66

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$539

PnL

-$238.76

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$442.43

Value

$498.65

PnL

+$56.22

Record

37%

566-944 (1510)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$397.48

Value

$400.74

PnL

+$3.26

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$267.71

Value

$272.61

PnL

+$4.9

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$261.35

Value

$247.32

PnL

-$14.03

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$360.16

Value

$235

PnL

-$125.16

Record

46%

1978-2360 (4338)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$235

PnL

-$82.5

Record

36%

397-691 (1088)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.34

Value

$182.34

PnL

+$69

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 35 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

202 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 73% · 15

Diverging

sharpNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 71% · 24

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 64% · 28

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.