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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
00gringo000x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465joseph00677mildwindow27
Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (4522–3297, n=7819)45% (10–12, n=22)36% (5190–9171, n=14361)
Consensus PnL—$7.8M$5.3M-$144K
Tracked as—PM monthly #68PM monthly #2PM monthly #315
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position62% (18 of 29 open)no open consensus position69% (45 of 65 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—NHL −1 pts, n=134—Weather −4 pts, n=1229
Settled positions, side won—59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%42% of 4985 at avg 45¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢—17% (won 11% of 1183)12% (won 0% of 2)54% (won 1% of 2673)
Entries 30–50¢—24% (won 45% of 1724)6% (won 0% of 1)2% (won 43% of 124)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 66% of 2055)65% (won 73% of 11)4% (won 55% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 2092)18% (won 67% of 3)40% (won 96% of 1974)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.