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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)50% (659–646, n=1305)45% (547–663, n=1210)53% (10–9, n=19)
Consensus PnL$75K$11.0M$5.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #823PM monthly #1PM monthly #2
Sides with the consensus67% (2 of 3 open)64% (72 of 113 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won69% of 1073 at avg 63¢, ROI +2%97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%
Entries under 30¢14% (won 25% of 152)10% (won 81% of 57)12% (won 0% of 2)
Entries 30–50¢19% (won 41% of 202)36% (won 98% of 201)6% (won 0% of 1)
Entries 50–70¢25% (won 68% of 273)35% (won 99% of 196)65% (won 73% of 11)
Entries 70¢ and up42% (won 96% of 446)19% (won 100% of 109)18% (won 67% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.