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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
Lucerys0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188beachboy4
Record (consensus markets)81% (7083–1690, n=8773)46% (131–154, n=285)68% (43–20, n=63)
Consensus PnL$328K$19.0M$5.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #17was PM monthly #715was PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensus96% (90 of 94 open)no open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
Weakest topicElections −2 pts, n=533College Basketball −12 pts, n=174NBA −6 pts, n=93
Settled positions, side won46% of 3951 at avg 45¢, ROI −1%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢48% (won 4% of 1882)0% (won 17% of 6)3% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢6% (won 48% of 256)42% (won 46% of 565)30% (won 57% of 63)
Entries 50–70¢9% (won 69% of 366)57% (won 51% of 766)54% (won 51% of 115)
Entries 70¢ and up37% (won 94% of 1447)0% (won 100% of 4)14% (won 86% of 29)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.