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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| realbengvir | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (18–16, n=34) | 46% (131–154, n=285) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | -$6.6M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #870 | was PM monthly #715 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (23 of 27 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=10 | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 76% of 21 at avg 79¢, ROI 0% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 0% of 3) | 0% (won 17% of 6) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 0% of 2) | 42% (won 46% of 565) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 57% (won 51% of 766) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 100% of 16) | 0% (won 100% of 4) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | realbengvir | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $730 | — | No $99K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $72K | — | Yes $2.7M |