Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 53% (18–16, n=34) · PM monthly #870 · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$25.7K
Record
18W / 16L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 34 settled
Batting Avg
46.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1673
Source
PM monthly #870
Record (90 d)
6/11 · 55%
Trades
445
Markets
73
Volume
$961.4K
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 26 of 30 on the consensus side (87%)- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $72K · now 72¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (81% of 114)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $28K · now 76¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (78% of 140)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $18K · now 85¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (87% of 54)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $14K · now 97¢with the consensus (94% of 33)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $8.5K · now 51¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (61% of 33)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $8.0K · now 38¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (77% of 62)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $5.8K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (97% of 33)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.0K · now 81¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (58% of 84)
Specialties
21 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 79¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where realbengvir's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 70% of 10 at an average 71¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 0% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 100% of 16)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.