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F1
Consensus PnL $98K · win rate 54% (198–168, n=366) · was PM monthly #918 · holds 3 consensus positions
0xf184bff6...1ebbc2d7Polymarket
🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$98.1K
Record
198W / 168L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 366 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1516
Source
PM monthly #918
Trades
41
Markets
372
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 3 on the consensus side (33%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?No $3.7K · now 25¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $1.7K · now 20¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 8¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
265 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 54¢- Esports
+20 pts
side won 74% of 265 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 25% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 65% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 83% of 106)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 91% of 44)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.