Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 52% (191–178, n=369) · was PM monthly #374 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$36.1K
Record
191W / 178L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 369 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1646
Source
PM monthly #374
Trades
161
Markets
378
Volume
$5.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $2.1K · now 35¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
189 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 51¢- Esports
+50 pts
side won 99% of 106 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +48%
- College Football
+47 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +45%
- MMA
+52 pts
side won 100% of 19 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 100% of 7)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 100% of 61)
- 50–70¢: 60%(won 98% of 113)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 100% of 8)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.