Consensus PnL $573K · win rate 64% (646–366, n=1012) · was PM monthly #972 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$573.1K
Record
646W / 366L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 1012 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#970
Source
PM monthly #972
Trades
511
Markets
1,281
Volume
$25.5M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Chiefs vs. BroncosBroncos $100K · now 38¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Chiefs)
- Patriots vs. DolphinsDolphins $41K · now 60¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (57% of 32)
- Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 44.5Under $38K · now 41¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Chargers vs. Rams: O/U 40.5Under $15K · now 21¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Spread: Rams (-6.5)Rams $11K · now 85¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (48% of 24)
- Chargers vs. RamsRams $7.7K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (40% of 38)
Specialties
681 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 61¢- NBA
+44 pts
side won 100% of 242 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +46%
- College Basketball
+46 pts
side won 100% of 57 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +48%
- NHL
+43 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 99% of 179)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 100% of 250)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 100% of 221)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.