Chiefs vs. Broncos

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (80%) · Chiefs at 52¢ · $66K held · ends Nov 1

Chiefs52¢Broncos48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

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Research candidate

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.7K

Combined PnL

-$563.34

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 51.5¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateChiefs at 52%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs52%

Broncos49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs8 traders

Total Value$51.0K

Total Shares99,281

Combined PnL-$874.62

Broncos2 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares22,887

Combined PnL+$311.28

Chiefs — 80%Broncos — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpBroncos 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Chiefsavg 53¢	$26.5K	$25.8K	-$749.95	39% 196-304 (500)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Chiefsavg 52¢	$15.6K	$15.3K	-$150	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Broncosavg 47.1¢	$10.8K	$11.1K	+$290.14	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
PA para-Vision	Chiefsavg 51¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$41.43	56% 219-174 (393)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Broncosavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$21.14	53% 615-541 (1156)
VeryLucky888	Chiefsavg 52¢	$7.8K	$2.0K	-$37.69	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Chiefsavg 51¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$33.08	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
HE Herdonia	Chiefsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$15.79	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Chiefsavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$5	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 47¢	$470	$480	+$15
LU LuckyLoo	Chiefsavg 51¢	$270.3	$275.6	+$5.3	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Chiefsavg 52¢	$104	$102	-$1	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Chiefsavg 51.7¢	$97.8	$97.38	+$0.55	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 51.7¢	$73.36	$72.42	-$0.23
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 47¢	$24.44	$24.96	+$0.78

wan123

Chiefs

Invested

$26,499.95

Value

$25.8K

PnL

-$749.95

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Chiefs

Invested

$15,600

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$150

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Broncos

Invested

$10,804.48

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$290.14

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

para-Vision

Chiefs

Invested

$4,226.2

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$41.43

Record

56%

219-174 (393)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Broncos

Invested

$2,028.09

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$21.14

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

VeryLucky888

Chiefs

Invested

$7,833.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$37.69

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0x0A77exmm

Chiefs

Invested

$1,687.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$33.08

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

Herdonia

Chiefs

Invested

$1,561.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$15.79

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

lissartterARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$1,510

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

Invested

$270.3

Value

$275.6

PnL

+$5.3

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Chiefs

Invested

$104

Value

$102

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$97.8

Value

$97.38

PnL

+$0.55

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Chiefs$73.3651.7¢-$0.23

Broncos$24.4447¢+$0.78

Research grade

Research candidateChiefs at 52%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChiefs 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpBroncos 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.