Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rams, while the market favors Chargers (75%). 9 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rams (-6.5)

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (43%) · Rams at 25¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 1

Rams25¢Chargers75¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.4K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 25¢

-52% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidRams at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

9 of 21 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Chargers 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rams25%

Chargers75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams9 traders

Total Value$29.6K

Total Shares54,215

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Chargers12 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares22,801

Combined PnL+$35.79

Rams — 43%Chargers — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanazCTR	Ramsavg 52¢	$12.9K	$14.0K	+$1.1K	52% 676-633 (1309)
VigorishVaultCTR	Ramsavg 52¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$52.88	72% 18-7 (25)
AN Anon455CTR	Ramsavg 51.4¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$110.47	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
VeryLucky888	Chargersavg 48¢	$4.5K	$3.3K	+$66.25	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HE Herdonia	Chargersavg 48.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$52.78	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Chargersavg 49.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$40.2	47% 142-163 (305)
hammyandcheeseCTR	Ramsavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$135	55% 406-328 (734)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Chargersavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$12.5	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Ramsavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.55	50% 121-120 (241)
PR primmCTR	Ramsavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$30.61	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
DO DolphinBaller	Chargersavg 49¢	$980	$970	-$10	47% 100-113 (213)
0X 0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879CTR	Ramsavg 52¢	$924.22	$915.33	-$8.89	39% 56-88 (144)
0xheavy888	Chargersavg 48¢	$540	$545.63	+$5.63	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
HO HomeRunHazard	Chargersavg 48¢	$535.25	$540.82	+$5.58	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Ramsavg 45.7¢	$454.45	$452.45	-$2	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 45.7¢	$377.01	$358.66	-$18.35
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 46.7¢	$77.44	$93.79	+$16.35
OM omnibus-076daa	Chargersavg 54.2¢	$340.02	$304.01	-$36.02	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Ramsavg 49.1¢	$236.2	$217.73	-$18.47	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 47.7¢	$81.57	$115.32	+$33.76
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 49.1¢	$154.63	$102.4	-$52.23
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Ramsavg 51¢	$200	$198.04	-$1.96	60% 314-210 (524)
TA takeormake<$100	Chargersavg 59.1¢	$29.5	$31.19	+$1.69	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
RL RLWG<$100	Chargersavg 48¢	$26.4	$26.75	+$3	50% 7981-8012 (15993)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Chargersavg 50¢	$24	$24	-$0.24	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
GG GGLPL<$100	Chargersavg 49¢	$16.53	$16.36	-$0.17	50% 697-693 (1390)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Ramsavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.05	-$0.05	51% 1532-1483 (3015)

ethanazCTR

Rams

Invested

$12,905.62

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

676-633 (1309)

VigorishVaultCTR

Rams

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$52.88

Record

72%

18-7 (25)

Anon455CTR

Rams

Invested

$5,229.05

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$110.47

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

VeryLucky888

Chargers

Invested

$4,473.26

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$66.25

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Herdonia

Chargers

Invested

$2,142.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$52.78

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Chargers

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40.2

Record

47%

142-163 (305)

hammyandcheeseCTR

Rams

Invested

$1,560

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$135

Record

55%

406-328 (734)

0x0A77exmm

Chargers

Invested

$1,250

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Rams

Invested

$1,179.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.55

Record

50%

121-120 (241)

primmCTR

Rams

Invested

$1,040.81

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$30.61

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

DolphinBaller

Chargers

Invested

$980

Value

$970

PnL

-$10

Record

47%

100-113 (213)

0x8cBbF4e3d2D0b6Fb7b684cF1f5EE12d79dFCE8A8-1772503424879CTR

Rams

Invested

$924.22

Value

$915.33

PnL

-$8.89

Record

39%

56-88 (144)

0xheavy888

Chargers

Invested

$540

Value

$545.63

PnL

+$5.63

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

HomeRunHazard

Chargers

Invested

$535.25

Value

$540.82

PnL

+$5.58

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$454.45

Value

$452.45

PnL

-$2

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Rams$377.0145.7¢-$18.35

Chargers$77.4446.7¢+$16.35

omnibus-076daa

Chargers

Invested

$340.02

Value

$304.01

PnL

-$36.02

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$236.2

Value

$217.73

PnL

-$18.47

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

Chargers$81.5747.7¢+$33.76

Rams$154.6349.1¢-$52.23

shovelingdiggingCTR

Rams

Invested

$200

Value

$198.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

60%

314-210 (524)

takeormake<$100

Chargers

Invested

$29.5

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$1.69

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

RLWG<$100

Chargers

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.75

PnL

+$3

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Chargers

Invested

$24

Value

$24

PnL

-$0.24

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

GGLPL<$100

Chargers

Invested

$16.53

Value

$16.36

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

Research grade

AvoidRams at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

9 of 21 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Chargers 75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.