Chargers vs. Rams
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (43%) · Rams at 74¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Rams
7
Rams 43%
$19.1K
-$47.75
74¢ → 73.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Ramsavg 74¢ | $10.4K | $10.4K | -$70.55 | 58% 78-56 (134) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Chargersavg 26¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | +$75 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
HY hydra1248 | Ramsavg 74¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$13.3 | 58% 14-10 (24) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Chargersavg 26.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$18.61 | 54% 3405-2950 (6355) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Chargersavg 27¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$19.78 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
NI niceqqqqq3 | Ramsavg 73¢ | $365 | $367.5 | +$2.5 | 42% 36-50 (86) |
 fyrskenCTR<$100 | Chargersavg 27¢ | $81 | $78 | -$3 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
Invested
$10,441.44
Value
$10.4K
PnL
-$70.55
Record
58%
78-56 (134)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,899.95
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$75
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
Invested
$1,968.6
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$13.3
Record
58%
14-10 (24)
Invested
$1,367.02
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$18.61
Record
54%
3405-2950 (6355)
Invested
$1,068.39
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$19.78
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$365
Value
$367.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
42%
36-50 (86)
fyrskenCTR<$100Invested
$81
Value
$78
PnL
-$3
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.