Consensus PnL -$58K · win rate 46% (282–326, n=608) · was PM monthly #880 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-58.5K
Record
282W / 326L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 608 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1951
Source
PM monthly #880
Trades
223
Markets
857
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $3.1K · now 6¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $758 · now 3¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+43 pts
side won 98% of 234 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
- NBA
+32 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +30%
- Soccer
+44 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 94% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 97% of 96)
- 50–70¢: 40%(won 97% of 113)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 100% of 59)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.