Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 29

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 96.8¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,273

Combined PnL-$1.18

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares82,774

Combined PnL+$1.4K

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$2.44	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FR frohp5CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$486.14	$1.1K	+$588.13	65% 1991-1068 (3059)
FA facaigegeCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$711.87	$757.8	+$92.64	49% 411-432 (843)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$108.91	$449.26	+$333.54	54% 1249-1044 (2293)
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$73.86	$435.86	+$355.43	52% 839-788 (1627)
UbuntuTrading	Noavg 97.2¢	$288.75	$290.4	+$1.65	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 97¢	$134.93	$134.55	-$0.38	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
enpirugbrptiCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.91	$2	+$1.06	54% 3501-2966 (6467)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$1,777.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$2.44

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

frohp5CTR

Yes

Invested

$486.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$588.13

Record

65%

1991-1068 (3059)

facaigegeCTR

Yes

Invested

$711.87

Value

$757.8

PnL

+$92.64

Record

49%

411-432 (843)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Yes

Invested

$108.91

Value

$449.26

PnL

+$333.54

Record

54%

1249-1044 (2293)

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$73.86

Value

$435.86

PnL

+$355.43

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

UbuntuTrading

Invested

$288.75

Value

$290.4

PnL

+$1.65

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$134.93

Value

$134.55

PnL

-$0.38

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

enpirugbrptiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

PnL

+$1.06

Record

54%

3501-2966 (6467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

721h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

44 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.