Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-03 House election by 30%-35%?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 72¢ · $756 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$756
$189
71.2¢ → 71.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 70.7¢ | $734.64 | $579.42 | +$39.34 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 2B9S | Noavg 75.9¢ | $102.64 | $90.99 | +$2.12 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $133.49 | $32 | +$142.79 | — 1-0 (1) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.2¢ | $25.25 | $25 | -$0.25 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $12.65 | $17.02 | +$4.37 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $11.2 | $11.84 | +$0.64 | 61% 21345-13641 (34986) |
Invested
$734.64
Value
$579.42
PnL
+$39.34
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
2B9SInvested
$102.64
Value
$90.99
PnL
+$2.12
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
fkpaCTRInvested
$133.49
Value
$32
PnL
+$142.79
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$25.25
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$17.02
PnL
+$4.37
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
balthazar<$100Invested
$11.2
Value
$11.84
PnL
+$0.64
Record
61%
21345-13641 (34986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.