Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 69¢ · $808 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$808
$114.55
75.1¢ → 68.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 74.5¢ | $1.6K | $467.12 | +$28.78 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 76.9¢ | $432.83 | $292.48 | -$12.57 | 18% 365-1640 (2005) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $28.12 | $28.12 | +$0 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $14 | $14.9 | +$0.9 | 61% 21345-13641 (34986) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $153.66 | $5.86 | +$97.44 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$1,550.47
Value
$467.12
PnL
+$28.78
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
IstarothInvested
$432.83
Value
$292.48
PnL
-$12.57
Record
18%
365-1640 (2005)
Invested
$28.12
Value
$28.12
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14
Value
$14.9
PnL
+$0.9
Record
61%
21345-13641 (34986)
fkpaCTRInvested
$153.66
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$97.44
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.