Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $840 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$839.79
$28.43
82.9¢ → 89.4¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Noavg 86¢ | $496.82 | $518.44 | +$21.04 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 80¢ | $139.2 | $156.08 | +$16.53 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $108.74 | $79.27 | -$29.47 | — 1-0 (1) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 67.7¢ | $56.97 | $75.46 | +$18.41 | 67% 4164-2026 (6190) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $8.57 | $10.54 | +$1.92 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
Invested
$496.82
Value
$518.44
PnL
+$21.04
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$139.2
Value
$156.08
PnL
+$16.53
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
fkpaCTRInvested
$108.74
Value
$79.27
PnL
-$29.47
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Car<$100Invested
$56.97
Value
$75.46
PnL
+$18.41
Record
67%
4164-2026 (6190)
Invested
$8.57
Value
$10.54
PnL
+$1.92
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.