Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.0K
$19.99
80.7¢ → 76.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
95h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Noavg 81.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$94.72 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $255.66 | $277.95 | +$22.29 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $158.81 | $221.33 | +$62.52 | — 1-0 (1) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $407.53 | $154.84 | +$25.17 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 66.8¢ | $51.1 | $57.79 | +$6.69 | 67% 4164-2026 (6190) |
PI pieped<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $24.6 | $22.65 | -$1.95 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
Invested
$1,319.06
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$94.72
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$255.66
Value
$277.95
PnL
+$22.29
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
fkpaCTRInvested
$158.81
Value
$221.33
PnL
+$62.52
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$407.53
Value
$154.84
PnL
+$25.17
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Car<$100Invested
$51.1
Value
$57.79
PnL
+$6.69
Record
67%
4164-2026 (6190)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$22.65
PnL
-$1.95
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.