Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.0K
$189.1
83.2¢ → 97.3¢
+17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $984.53 | $1.1K | +$93.86 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 78.3¢ | $327.39 | $404.95 | +$77.56 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
FO foooool | Noavg 80.6¢ | $250.04 | $271.3 | +$21.26 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 71¢ | $187.88 | $229.73 | +$4.16 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $9.68 | +$0.98 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $11.57 | $2.85 | -$8.72 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
RN1Invested
$984.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$93.86
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$327.39
Value
$404.95
PnL
+$77.56
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$250.04
Value
$271.3
PnL
+$21.26
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
oieshfn345Invested
$187.88
Value
$229.73
PnL
+$4.16
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$9.68
PnL
+$0.98
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$11.57
Value
$2.85
PnL
-$8.72
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.