Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to Score

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 57¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

31.4¢ → 57.5¢

+83% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares9,316

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,533

Combined PnL-$661.8

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 31.3¢	$2.8K	$4.8K	+$2.0K	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 68.5¢	$1.1K	$647.03	-$497.09	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 68.7¢	$424.96	$253.36	-$171.6	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Yesavg 70¢	$115.54	$116.6	+$1.06	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 30¢	$22.2	$45.14	-$0.37	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 30¢	$21.55	$43.83	-$0.36	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$35.84	$36.85	+$1.01	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 52¢	$26.78	$29.09	+$2.32	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	$15.19	$19.82	+$4.63	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 69¢	$227.32	$9.08	+$4.83	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 30¢	$3.39	$6.9	+$0.74	49% 13022-13588 (26610)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,841.88

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,135.83

Value

$647.03

PnL

-$497.09

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.96

Value

$253.36

PnL

-$171.6

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Forecastication2CTR

Yes

Invested

$115.54

Value

$116.6

PnL

+$1.06

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$45.14

PnL

-$0.37

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$21.55

Value

$43.83

PnL

-$0.36

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.84

Value

$36.85

PnL

+$1.01

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$26.78

Value

$29.09

PnL

+$2.32

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.19

Value

$19.82

PnL

+$4.63

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$227.32

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$4.83

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$3.39

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$0.74

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.