Consensus PnL $97K · win rate 43% (693–907, n=1600) · PM monthly #403 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$97.3K
Record
693W / 907L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 1600 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2032
Source
PM monthly #403
Trades
297
Markets
1,656
Volume
$4.9M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5Under $3.4K · now 26¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (44% of 29)
- Titans vs. Bengals: O/U 46.5Over $3.0K · now 98¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (64% of 16)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $2.8K · now 44¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (46% of 66)
Specialties
1,156 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 42¢- NFL
+48 pts
side won 93% of 28 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +44%
- Esports
+20 pts
side won 61% of 828 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +19%
- NBA
+10 pts
side won 55% of 228 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 37% of 46 at an average 40¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 36% of 233)
- 30–50¢: 48%(won 61% of 552)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 72% of 345)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 77% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.