Raiders vs. Jets

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (20%) · Jets at 54¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 1

Raiders47¢Jets53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.6K

Combined PnL

-$227.42

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders47%

Jets54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jets2 traders

Total Value$29.2K

Total Shares54,500

Combined PnL-$272.5

Raiders8 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares52,556

Combined PnL+$45.08

Jets — 20%Raiders — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

137h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jets) and the top 1000 (8 on Raiders) disagree here.

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRaiders 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA wan123	Jetsavg 54¢	$27.0K	$26.8K	-$250	39% 196-304 (500)
TA takeormakeCTR	Raidersavg 46¢	$20.3K	$20.6K	+$221.05	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Jetsavg 53¢	$9.8K	$9.9K	+$98.19	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 53¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$58.27
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 46¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$39.91
ON Onomatopoeia777	Jetsavg 54¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$22.5	48% 78-86 (164)
RO roldyCTR	Raidersavg 51¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$179.75	55% 1429-1185 (2614)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Raidersavg 46¢	$1,000	$1,000	+$10.87	54% 732-617 (1349)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$508.54	$497.72	-$5.41	53% 453-396 (849)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Raidersavg 47¢	$287.33	$286.61	+$2.31	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Raidersavg 47.3¢	$173.26	$168.59	-$2.85	65% 1758-962 (2720)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$94	$92	-$1	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Raidersavg 47¢	$13.27	$12.98	-$0.14	51% 6525-6188 (12713)

wan123

Jets

Invested

$27,000

Value

$26.8K

PnL

-$250

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

takeormakeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$20,336.5

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$221.05

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$9,849.03

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$98.19

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Jets$6,177.1253¢+$58.27

Raiders$3,671.9146¢+$39.91

Onomatopoeia777

Jets

Invested

$2,430

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$22.5

Record

48%

78-86 (164)

roldyCTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,017.51

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$179.75

Record

55%

1429-1185 (2614)

pltrkr111CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1,000

PnL

+$10.87

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Raiders

Invested

$508.54

Value

$497.72

PnL

-$5.41

Record

53%

453-396 (849)

BoomLaLaCTR

Raiders

Invested

$287.33

Value

$286.61

PnL

+$2.31

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

darkumbreon88CTR

Raiders

Invested

$173.26

Value

$168.59

PnL

-$2.85

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$94

Value

$92

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$13.27

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

6525-6188 (12713)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jets

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

137h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Jets) and the top 1000 (8 on Raiders) disagree here.

whaleJets 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrRaiders 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.