Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 73¢ · $108K held · ended Nov 1

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$107.7K

Combined PnL

-$33.85

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 72.5¢

+37% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$45.8K

Total Shares79,584

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Over13 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares68,260

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 61% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$31.0K	$31.5K	-$300	53% 915-808 (1723)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$21.6K	$23.0K	-$200
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$9.4K	$8.5K	-$100
KC Kch-Temp	Underavg 53¢	$23.0K	$25.0K	+$2.0K	51% 220-214 (434)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$12.2K	$11.2K	$-1.1K	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 53¢	$7.9K	$8.6K	+$671.4	53% 615-541 (1156)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Underavg 52¢	$3.7K	$4.1K	+$390.62	49% 783-802 (1585)
SI Siddhartha1	Underavg 54¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$248.53	51% 59-57 (116)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$5.1K	$3.8K	-$365.25	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
FO forget4	Underavg 54¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	-$30	44% 693-893 (1586)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 46¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	+$35.2	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$304.65	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$244.13	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 65.1¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$297.29	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.1¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$100.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.2¢	$1.2K	$783.82	-$397.43
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 47.2¢	$3.0K	$2.1K	-$935.7	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1,000	$923.91	-$76.09	54% 733-618 (1351)
RN1CTR	Overavg 42¢	$887	$718.25	-$168.75	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$397.15	$359.13	-$4.23	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$355	-$115	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
MA manoamano	Underavg 54¢	$296.09	$315.28	+$19.19	51% 507-478 (985)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 45¢	$211.95	$200.17	-$11.78	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 53¢	$172.78	$187.45	+$14.67	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 46.6¢	$168.8	$158.98	-$9.83	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 46.7¢	$1.2K	$116.97	-$50.13	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 67.6¢	$46.53	$48.18	+$1.65	53% 11037-9631 (20668)
GG GGLPL<$100	Underavg 55¢	$8.78	$10.29	+$1.52	50% 697-693 (1390)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 53¢	$7.95	$8.62	+$0.67	50% 7981-8012 (15993)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANARB<$100

Under

Invested

$31,000

Value

$31.5K

PnL

-$300

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

Both legs:

Invested

$23,047.82

Value

$25.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$12,231.56

Value

$11.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$7,907.62

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$671.4

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Under

Invested

$3,693.14

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$390.62

Record

49%

783-802 (1585)

Siddhartha1

Under

Invested

$3,834.4

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$248.53

Record

51%

59-57 (116)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$5,136.02

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$365.25

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

forget4

Under

Invested

$3,240

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

44%

693-893 (1586)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$3,238

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$35.2

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$3,158.74

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$304.65

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$2,727.08

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$244.13

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,513.9

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$297.29

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

Both legs:

Under$1,332.6465.1¢+$100.14

Over$1,181.2645.2¢-$397.43

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,999.44

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$935.7

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$923.91

PnL

-$76.09

Record

54%

733-618 (1351)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$887

Value

$718.25

PnL

-$168.75

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$397.15

Value

$359.13

PnL

-$4.23

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$355

PnL

-$115

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

manoamano

Under

Invested

$296.09

Value

$315.28

PnL

+$19.19

Record

51%

507-478 (985)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$211.95

Value

$200.17

PnL

-$11.78

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$172.78

Value

$187.45

PnL

+$14.67

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$168.8

Value

$158.98

PnL

-$9.83

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$1,154.1

Value

$116.97

PnL

-$50.13

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$46.53

Value

$48.18

PnL

+$1.65

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

GGLPL<$100

Under

Invested

$8.78

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$1.52

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$7.95

Value

$8.62

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

7981-8012 (15993)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 23 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

37% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpOver 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrOver 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 61% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.