Consensus PnL -$146K · win rate 55% (855–689, n=1544) · PM monthly #283 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-146.0K
Record
855W / 689L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 1544 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1445
Source
PM monthly #283
Trades
33
Markets
2,012
Volume
$2.9M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $2.5K · now 100¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ALegacy $2.5K · now 53¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
Specialties
538 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+32 pts
side won 85% of 515 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 0% of 10 at an average 10¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 45% of 55)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 81% of 163)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 88% of 232)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 98% of 88)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.