Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Team Spirit (90%) · Team Spirit at 76¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 1

Team Yandex24¢Team Spirit76¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Team Spirit

Consensus Traders

Team Spirit 90%

Total Value

$29.2K

Combined PnL

$8.3K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 76¢

+41% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Yandex24%

Team Spirit76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Spirit9 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares35,299

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Team Yandex1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares11,300

Combined PnL-$25.07

Team Spirit — 90%Team Yandex — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Team Spiritavg 53.4¢	$12.7K	$19.6K	+$6.9K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
Reformedx	Team Spiritavg 55¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$0	52% 839-788 (1627)
forsenxd	Team Spiritavg 53.9¢	$1.6K	$2.5K	+$916.64	53% 1074-939 (2013)
FR fraagenCTR	Team Yandexavg 45.2¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$25.07	45% 61-76 (137)
CR Crazyboy77	Team Spiritavg 55.5¢	$889.99	$1.3K	+$410	51% 182-174 (356)
AM ameisgoat11	Team Spiritavg 66.7¢	$164.82	$198.88	+$36.54	52% 7503-6793 (14296)
YI yishiwucheng	Team Spiritavg 75¢	$144.57	$138.46	-$6.11	51% 1833-1762 (3595)
LU luckycat888888	Team Spiritavg 55¢	$80.09	$117.23	+$40.05	50% 67-66 (133)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Team Spiritavg 50¢	$51.43	$66.86	+$5.14	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Team Spiritavg 79¢	$34.45	$35.1	-$1.31	62% 1191-725 (1916)

omnibus-076daa

Team Spirit

Invested

$12,664.35

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

Reformedx

Team Spirit

Invested

$2,750

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

839-788 (1627)

forsenxd

Team Spirit

Invested

$1,604.59

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$916.64

Record

53%

1074-939 (2013)

fraagenCTR

Team Yandex

Invested

$2,059.07

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.07

Record

45%

61-76 (137)

Crazyboy77

Team Spirit

Invested

$889.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$410

Record

51%

182-174 (356)

ameisgoat11

Team Spirit

Invested

$164.82

Value

$198.88

PnL

+$36.54

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

yishiwucheng

Team Spirit

Invested

$144.57

Value

$138.46

PnL

-$6.11

Record

51%

1833-1762 (3595)

luckycat888888

Team Spirit

Invested

$80.09

Value

$117.23

PnL

+$40.05

Record

50%

67-66 (133)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$51.43

Value

$66.86

PnL

+$5.14

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

lonmi2511<$100

Team Spirit

Invested

$34.45

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$1.31

Record

62%

1191-725 (1916)

Research grade

NeutralTeam Spirit at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Team Spirit

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Team Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTeam Spirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTeam Spirit 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Team Spirit 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.