Consensus PnL -$262K · win rate 45% (60–74, n=134) · was PM monthly #942 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-261.8K
Record
60W / 74L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 134 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1989
Source
PM monthly #942
Trades
28
Markets
138
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Under $16K · now 47¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (20% of 12)
- Counter-Strike: Heroic vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AHeroic $11K · now 62¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $4.5K · now 23¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (57% of 34)
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Yandex $2.0K · now 24¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
58 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 51¢- Esports
+52 pts
side won 100% of 28 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +48%
- Soccer
+46 pts
side won 100% of 21 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +47%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 100% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 100% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.