Will Ethereum reach $2,500 October 26-November 1?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 99.8¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares24,564

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.24

Total Shares497

Combined PnL-$98.06

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GE getbipped	Noavg 94.6¢	$16.5K	$17.4K	+$891.16	49% 208-213 (421)
TO Tokor	Noavg 91.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$211.81	62% 795-490 (1285)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 97.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$40.95	76% 279-86 (365)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 75¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$270.59	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 98.2¢	$590.18	$599.2	+$9.92	98% 6914-167 (7081)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 99.7¢	$104.69	$104.69	+$0	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Facaie<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$4.97	$4.99	+$0.03	93% 1312-105 (1417)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$99.3	$1.24	-$98.06	61% 313-200 (513)

getbipped

Invested

$16,530.57

Value

$17.4K

PnL

+$891.16

Record

49%

208-213 (421)

Tokor

Invested

$2,522.82

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$211.81

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,954.05

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$40.95

Record

76%

279-86 (365)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$1,588.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$270.59

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

Sharky6999

Invested

$590.18

Value

$599.2

PnL

+$9.92

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$104.69

Value

$104.69

PnL

+$0

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Facaie<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.03

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.3

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$98.06

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

66h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.