Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 26-November 1?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$5.5K

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 99.4¢

+20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$22.2K

Total Shares22,559

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$177.43

Total Shares11,850

Combined PnL+$547.21

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 91.1¢	$11.5K	$12.8K	+$1.3K	66% 2460-1294 (3754)
GE getbipped	Noavg 67.5¢	$4.7K	$8.4K	+$3.6K	49% 208-213 (421)
Facaie	Noavg 98.9¢	$989	$983	-$3	93% 1323-105 (1428)
19 196874353278CTR	Yesavg 3.8¢	$639.25	$127.75	+$673.96	45% 219-270 (489)
TI timetowanderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$41.29	$32.94	-$17.13	40% 396-590 (986)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$38.21	$9.23	-$28.98	62% 796-492 (1288)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.8¢	$96.4	$7.5	-$80.65	61% 313-200 (513)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$11,484.97

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

66%

2460-1294 (3754)

getbipped

Invested

$4,742.68

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

49%

208-213 (421)

Facaie

Invested

$989

Value

$983

PnL

-$3

Record

93%

1323-105 (1428)

196874353278CTR

Yes

Invested

$639.25

Value

$127.75

PnL

+$673.96

Record

45%

219-270 (489)

timetowanderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.29

Value

$32.94

PnL

-$17.13

Record

40%

396-590 (986)

TokorCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.21

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$28.98

Record

62%

796-492 (1288)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.4

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$80.65

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

68h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.