Consensus PnL -$26K · win rate 42% (135–189, n=324) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-26.4K
Record
135W / 189L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 324 settled
Batting Avg
59.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1478
Source
PM monthly #1000
Record (90 d)
16/19 · 84%
Trades
675
Markets
364
Volume
$524.0K
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming $30K · now 81¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (T1)
Specialties
228 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 45¢- Esports
+8 pts
side won 53% of 113 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +27%
- NBA
+4 pts
side won 47% of 15 · avg entry 43¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 28% of 29 at an average 40¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 12% of 42)
- 30–50¢: 35%(won 40% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 63% of 95)
- 70¢ and up: 5%(won 82% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.