Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold T1, while the market favors Bilibili Gaming (53%). 34 of 94 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner

34 of 94 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (36%) · T1 at 48¢ · $2.3M held · ends Nov 9

Bilibili Gaming53¢T147¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

T1 36%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3M

Combined PnL

$-66.6K

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 47.5¢

-12% since entry · 34 traders

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

34 of 94 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 53%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bilibili Gaming53%

T148%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

T134 traders

Total Value$1.3M

Total Shares2,763,206

Combined PnL$-148.9K

Bilibili Gaming60 traders

Total Value$866.9K

Total Shares1,655,736

Combined PnL+$82.3K

T1 — 36%Bilibili Gaming — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR	T1avg 55.1¢	$955.7K	$824.1K	$-131.6K	54% 27-23 (50)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Bilibili Gamingavg 44.2¢	$127.0K	$145.0K	+$18.0K	53% 6644-5935 (12579)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	T1avg 54.6¢	$123.1K	$125.2K	+$2.1K	51% 1025-997 (2022)
zb8CTR	T1avg 52.4¢	$133.0K	$115.5K	$-17.5K	53% 668-587 (1255)
S- S-Works	Bilibili Gamingavg 43¢	$89.0K	$112.8K	+$23.8K	69% 3000-1369 (4369)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Bilibili Gamingavg 43¢	$52.6K	$64.2K	+$11.6K	54% 1455-1257 (2712)
vtcchampion52CTR	T1avg 45.6¢	$48.0K	$50.0K	+$2.0K	49% 1304-1349 (2653)
FA fantasy7788CTR	T1avg 45.8¢	$39.1K	$48.3K	+$9.1K	41% 102-144 (246)
ZY Zywoo123	Bilibili Gamingavg 47.4¢	$52.2K	$47.9K	$-4.3K	52% 1007-928 (1935)
dodsterbot	Bilibili Gamingavg 45.8¢	$45.7K	$47.1K	+$1.4K	46% 672-791 (1463)
LI LinkE5	Bilibili Gamingavg 49¢	$40.6K	$46.7K	+$6.2K	47% 770-855 (1625)
CUTJALENHURTS	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$28.6K	$36.7K	+$8.1K	51% 6917-6562 (13479)
0X 0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502	Bilibili Gamingavg 46¢	$25.9K	$31.8K	+$5.9K	35% 245-447 (692)
howard22222	Bilibili Gamingavg 54.4¢	$30.1K	$29.6K	-$490.61	41% 131-187 (318)
DR dromedaryyCTR	T1avg 54.2¢	$27.1K	$25.3K	$-1.9K	25% 44-135 (179)
OL olegio	Bilibili Gamingavg 44¢	$24.4K	$24.7K	+$277.5	44% 451-575 (1026)
HomelessnHoelessCTR	T1avg 53.3¢	$27.8K	$23.7K	$-4.1K	51% 133-128 (261)
Sunshine.SmileCTR	T1avg 54.5¢	$21.1K	$21.9K	+$767.26	58% 2039-1486 (3525)
SC Scrip-scrip	Bilibili Gamingavg 43.5¢	$17.4K	$21.4K	+$4.0K	54% 14-12 (26)
US Username2133ARB<$100	Bilibili Gamingavg 48.4¢	$19.2K	$19.1K	-$138.11	60% 114-75 (189)
└ Bilibili Gaming leg	Bilibili Gamingavg 48.4¢	$10.7K	$11.6K	+$901.2
└ T1 leg	T1avg 54.2¢	$8.5K	$7.4K	$-1.0K
LlamaEnjoyerCTR	T1avg 57¢	$27.6K	$17.5K	$-4.7K	84% 2600-497 (3097)
FK fkALG2FalconsTES	Bilibili Gamingavg 45¢	$13.5K	$16.9K	+$3.5K	58% 2201-1607 (3808)
Anjun	Bilibili Gamingavg 43.9¢	$17.1K	$16.5K	-$527.77	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
12 121212121212121212121212	Bilibili Gamingavg 47¢	$17.6K	$16.3K	$-1.3K	— 12-2 (14)
0xheavy888	Bilibili Gamingavg 46.8¢	$14.0K	$15.8K	+$1.8K	56% 8773-6961 (15734)

Thunderous-Authoritarian-SnarlCTR

Invested

$955,701.69

Value

$824.1K

PnL

$-131.6K

Record

54%

27-23 (50)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$126,981.76

Value

$145.0K

PnL

+$18.0K

Record

53%

6644-5935 (12579)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Invested

$123,088.55

Value

$125.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

51%

1025-997 (2022)

zb8CTR

Invested

$133,037.61

Value

$115.5K

PnL

$-17.5K

Record

53%

668-587 (1255)

S-

S-Works

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$89,010

Value

$112.8K

PnL

+$23.8K

Record

69%

3000-1369 (4369)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$52,555.03

Value

$64.2K

PnL

+$11.6K

Record

54%

1455-1257 (2712)

vtcchampion52CTR

Invested

$48,004.53

Value

$50.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

1304-1349 (2653)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$39,145.75

Value

$48.3K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

41%

102-144 (246)

Zywoo123

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$52,160.34

Value

$47.9K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

52%

1007-928 (1935)

dodsterbot

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$45,714.35

Value

$47.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

46%

672-791 (1463)

LinkE5

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$40,565.6

Value

$46.7K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

47%

770-855 (1625)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$28,599.99

Value

$36.7K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

51%

6917-6562 (13479)

0x11963E4f3548c5Cbdcce3a62F9fF6b42975efE97-1768163136502

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$25,884.95

Value

$31.8K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

35%

245-447 (692)

howard22222

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$30,076.18

Value

$29.6K

PnL

-$490.61

Record

41%

131-187 (318)

dromedaryyCTR

Invested

$27,122.75

Value

$25.3K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

25%

44-135 (179)

olegio

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$24,420

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$277.5

Record

44%

451-575 (1026)

HomelessnHoelessCTR

Invested

$27,807.18

Value

$23.7K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

51%

133-128 (261)

Sunshine.SmileCTR

Invested

$21,098.24

Value

$21.9K

PnL

+$767.26

Record

58%

2039-1486 (3525)

Scrip-scrip

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$17,399.99

Value

$21.4K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

Username2133ARB<$100

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$19,190.03

Value

$19.1K

PnL

-$138.11

Record

60%

114-75 (189)

Both legs:

Bilibili Gaming$10,737.9448.4¢+$901.2

T1$8,452.0954.2¢$-1.0K

LlamaEnjoyerCTR

Invested

$27,561.3

Value

$17.5K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

84%

2600-497 (3097)

fkALG2FalconsTES

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$13,500

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

58%

2201-1607 (3808)

Anjun

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$17,055.17

Value

$16.5K

PnL

-$527.77

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

121212121212121212121212

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$17,581.68

Value

$16.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

12-2 (14)

0xheavy888

Bilibili Gaming

Invested

$14,014.6

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Research grade

NeutralT1 at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

34 of 94 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Bilibili Gaming 53%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed34 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that T1 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.