Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 46% (1388–1626, n=3014) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.7K
Record
1388W / 1626L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 3014 settled
Batting Avg
25.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1940
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
6,905,981
Markets
29,892
Volume
$222.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $12 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Anasse Kazib win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $6 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Natacha Polony win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $6 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Sylvain Durif win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $6 · now 0¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
8,739 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 75¢- Politics
+2 pts
side won 75% of 210 · avg entry 72¢
ROI 0%
- Esports
+4 pts
side won 73% of 73 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 71% of 586 at an average 74¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 6% of 1371)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 35% of 523)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 61% of 678)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 94% of 6167)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.