Consensus PnL $159K · win rate 48% (204–217, n=421) · was PM monthly #900 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$158.8K
Record
204W / 217L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 421 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1884
Source
PM monthly #900
Trades
130
Markets
466
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $2.9K · now 5¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 4¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $1.3K · now 3¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
352 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 43¢- Esports
+16 pts
side won 62% of 304 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +24%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 17% of 12 at an average 22¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 22% of 82)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 57% of 129)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 78% of 114)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 85% of 27)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.