Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

17 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (61%) · No at 96¢ · $616K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 61%

Total Value

$616.1K

Combined PnL

$55.4K

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 96.4¢

+15% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$610.4K

Total Shares631,887

Combined PnL+$78.1K

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares155,774

Combined PnL$-22.7K

No — 61%Yes — 39%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 64% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AF aff3	Noavg 84.1¢	$236.3K	$271.5K	+$34.4K	80% 171-44 (215)
GoriIIa	Noavg 83.8¢	$222.9K	$257.0K	+$33.3K	73% 229-85 (314)
TH thoodr	Noavg 86.1¢	$48.8K	$54.8K	+$5.8K	96% 631-24 (655)
mombil	Noavg 80.3¢	$12.0K	$14.5K	+$2.4K	55% 1191-966 (2157)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 87.4¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$351.31	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Warren-Buffett	Noavg 81.4¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$373.76	65% 862-465 (1327)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 16.3¢	$9.6K	$2.1K	$-7.5K	46% 271-319 (590)
CO cowcat	Noavg 75¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$397.33	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
JA jackcartwrightCTR	Yesavg 21.5¢	$8.0K	$1.4K	$-6.6K	49% 222-233 (455)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 82.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$190.03	89% 4653-547 (5200)
TimeTraveler	Noavg 71¢	$504.2	$685.86	+$179.89	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$3.4K	$650.45	$-2.7K	35% 35-65 (100)
Gohst	Noavg 33.7¢	$180	$516.54	+$335.2	49% 738-770 (1508)
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 19.4¢	$2.7K	$498.37	$-2.2K	52% 284-262 (546)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 84¢	$192.63	$386.4	+$47.58	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
BlondBeast	Noavg 78¢	$312	$386.4	+$73.4	69% 780-347 (1127)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$1.9K	$375.84	$-1.5K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
PI pieped	No	$295.32	$295.32	+$46.93	42% 71-100 (171)
BR BrownBeesCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$1.2K	$274.61	-$880.6	61% 67-43 (110)
seal7CTR	Yesavg 16¢	$1.2K	$273.52	-$925.41	49% 287-300 (587)
KR Krass	Noavg 83.3¢	$231.59	$267.84	+$36.26	74% 452-155 (607)
2B9S	Noavg 28¢	$46.58	$160.69	+$113.7	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
Donny.T	Noavg 77¢	$96.92	$121.77	+$24.84	72% 484-187 (671)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 83¢	$83.25	$96.6	+$13.35	72% 1535-585 (2120)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 17.3¢	$330.61	$69.86	-$260.74	50% 970-988 (1958)

aff3

Invested

$236,307.2

Value

$271.5K

PnL

+$34.4K

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

GoriIIa

Invested

$222,906.7

Value

$257.0K

PnL

+$33.3K

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

thoodr

Invested

$48,833.63

Value

$54.8K

PnL

+$5.8K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

mombil

Invested

$12,043.46

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$3,812.03

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$351.31

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Warren-Buffett

Invested

$2,041.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$373.76

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,612.95

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

cowcat

Invested

$1,397.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$397.33

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

jackcartwrightCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-6.6K

Record

49%

222-233 (455)

nonkenny90

Invested

$1,113.87

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$190.03

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

TimeTraveler

Invested

$504.2

Value

$685.86

PnL

+$179.89

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,385.86

Value

$650.45

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

35%

35-65 (100)

Gohst

Invested

$180

Value

$516.54

PnL

+$335.2

Record

49%

738-770 (1508)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,721

Value

$498.37

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$192.63

Value

$386.4

PnL

+$47.58

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

BlondBeast

Invested

$312

Value

$386.4

PnL

+$73.4

Record

69%

780-347 (1127)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,948.3

Value

$375.84

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

pieped

Invested

$295.32

Value

$295.32

PnL

+$46.93

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

BrownBeesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,155.25

Value

$274.61

PnL

-$880.6

Record

61%

67-43 (110)

seal7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,198.97

Value

$273.52

PnL

-$925.41

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

Krass

Invested

$231.59

Value

$267.84

PnL

+$36.26

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

2B9S

Invested

$46.58

Value

$160.69

PnL

+$113.7

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Donny.T

Invested

$96.92

Value

$121.77

PnL

+$24.84

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$83.25

Value

$96.6

PnL

+$13.35

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$330.61

Value

$69.86

PnL

-$260.74

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

17 of 28 top traders (61%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 10

Aligned

sharpNo 80% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 64% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.