Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (9%) · No at 95¢ · $19K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 9%

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$10.7K

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares9,271

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares180,672

Combined PnL+$8.9K

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

669h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 92.3¢	$14.9K	$8.6K	+$1.8K	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
perfectnostalgiaCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$291.64	$4.3K	+$4.0K	55% 338-273 (611)
JA jackcartwrightCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$320.86	$2.9K	+$2.6K	49% 222-233 (455)
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yes	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$1.4K	7% 14-187 (201)
FL flawfenceCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$438.89	+$375.98	46% 271-319 (590)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.5	$241.05	+$206.5	47% 83-94 (177)
RO roscoffCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$47.02	$215.51	+$166.53	54% 166-140 (306)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$1.15	$77.1	+$66.85	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$6.18	$43.14	+$36.96	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$5.45	$18.15	+$12.7	78% 283-79 (362)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.15	$16.81	+$16.66	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$14,902.35

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

perfectnostalgiaCTR

Yes

Invested

$291.64

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

55%

338-273 (611)

jackcartwrightCTR

Yes

Invested

$320.86

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

49%

222-233 (455)

NyetRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,669.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

14-187 (201)

flawfenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$438.89

PnL

+$375.98

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$241.05

PnL

+$206.5

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

roscoffCTR

Yes

Invested

$47.02

Value

$215.51

PnL

+$166.53

Record

54%

166-140 (306)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$77.1

PnL

+$66.85

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$43.14

PnL

+$36.96

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$12.7

Record

78%

283-79 (362)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$16.81

PnL

+$16.66

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 11 top traders (9%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

669h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

9% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.