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E9
Consensus PnL -$330K · win rate 44% (56–72, n=128) · PM monthly #771 · holds 5 consensus positions
0xe9c63124...075995c9Polymarket
⚖️Arb🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-330.4K
Record
56W / 72L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 128 settled
Batting Avg
72.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2023
Source
PM monthly #771
Trades
303
Markets
774
Volume
$8.0M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 2?No $8.9K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 2?Yes $145 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 1?Yes $131 · now 100¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?Yes $84 · now 0¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?No $66 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
196 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 70¢- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 89% of 194 · avg entry 70¢
ROI −5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 26% of 27)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 100% of 9)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 97% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 100% of 123)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.