Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 100¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$20.6K

Combined PnL

$66.06

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares20,542

Combined PnL+$247.88

No2 traders

Total Value$86.98

Total Shares9,665

Combined PnL-$181.82

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 98.1¢	$13.5K	$13.7K	+$216.62	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 99.6¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$17.93	59% 1064-740 (1804)
SH Sharky6999	Yesavg 99¢	$893.83	$900.6	+$7.22	98% 6914-167 (7081)
Facaie	Yesavg 98.7¢	$237.87	$240.52	+$2.77	93% 1312-105 (1417)
0X 0xDB5	Yesavg 98.5¢	$167.74	$169.98	+$2.49	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Noavg 1.9¢	$137.23	$65.59	-$133.57	54% 394-334 (728)
GO gobblewobble<$100	Yesavg 98.1¢	$46.13	$46.91	+$0.85	59% 877-611 (1488)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$49.43	$21.39	-$48.24	45% 212-263 (475)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$13,498.08

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$216.62

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$5,442.38

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$17.93

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

Sharky6999

Yes

Invested

$893.83

Value

$900.6

PnL

+$7.22

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

Facaie

Yes

Invested

$237.87

Value

$240.52

PnL

+$2.77

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

0xDB5

Yes

Invested

$167.74

Value

$169.98

PnL

+$2.49

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Invested

$137.23

Value

$65.59

PnL

-$133.57

Record

54%

394-334 (728)

gobblewobble<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.13

Value

$46.91

PnL

+$0.85

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

196874353278CTR<$100

Invested

$49.43

Value

$21.39

PnL

-$48.24

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.