Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 2?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 91¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$14.4K
-$342.01
89.6¢ → 90.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 91.5¢ | $9.1K | $8.9K | -$0.15 | 54% 394-334 (728) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 90.3¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$31.48 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 79.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$18.93 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $924.46 | $497.51 | -$357.81 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 91¢ | $362.88 | $343.97 | +$6.74 | 59% 2238-1571 (3809) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $14.38 | $11.65 | -$3.38 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.64 | $0.67 | +$0.04 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$9,106.49
Value
$8.9K
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
394-334 (728)
Invested
$2,437.46
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$31.48
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$2,249.28
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$18.93
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
Invested
$924.46
Value
$497.51
PnL
-$357.81
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$362.88
Value
$343.97
PnL
+$6.74
Record
59%
2238-1571 (3809)
Invested
$14.38
Value
$11.65
PnL
-$3.38
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.67
PnL
+$0.04
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.