Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $63K held · ends Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$63.1K

Combined PnL

$309.38

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$63.0K

Total Shares63,475

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$85.08

Total Shares6,545

Combined PnL$-2.2K

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 95.2¢	$38.7K	$35.2K	$-1.0K	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
SS ssddssd	Noavg 79.9¢	$7.2K	$8.9K	+$1.8K	52% 338-316 (654)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Noavg 98¢	$5.3K	$5.3K	+$57.21	59% 1064-740 (1804)
19 196874353278	Noavg 97.3¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$127.2	45% 212-263 (475)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 88.7¢	$5.6K	$3.5K	+$643.85	98% 6914-167 (7081)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 94.7¢	$9.7K	$3.4K	+$360.04	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
GO gobblewobble	Noavg 55.3¢	$662.38	$1.2K	+$532.99	59% 877-611 (1488)
RI Rin2x	Noavg 99.2¢	$248.02	$247	-$1.02	86% 2156-340 (2496)
Facaie	Noavg 98.7¢	$197.4	$197.6	+$0.2	93% 1312-105 (1417)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$2.5K	$84.39	$-2.2K	54% 394-334 (728)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$1.73	$0.69	-$1.6	53% 3726-3240 (6966)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$38,741.55

Value

$35.2K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

ssddssd

Invested

$7,166.57

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

338-316 (654)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Invested

$5,267.28

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$57.21

Record

59%

1064-740 (1804)

196874353278

Invested

$5,054.73

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$127.2

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

Sharky6999

Invested

$5,586.75

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$643.85

Record

98%

6914-167 (7081)

0xDB5

Invested

$9,729.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$360.04

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

gobblewobble

Invested

$662.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$532.99

Record

59%

877-611 (1488)

Rin2x

Invested

$248.02

Value

$247

PnL

-$1.02

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

Facaie

Invested

$197.4

Value

$197.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

93%

1312-105 (1417)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,459.02

Value

$84.39

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

394-334 (728)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

3726-3240 (6966)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.