Consensus PnL -$118K · win rate 73% (1112–418, n=1530) · PM monthly #564 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-117.9K
Record
1112W / 418L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 1530 settled
Batting Avg
29.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#619
Source
PM monthly #564
Trades
1,209
Markets
1,793
Volume
$9.2M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotJiri Lehecka $10K · now 35¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Valentin Vacherot)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $5.3K · now 82¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (50% of 39)
Specialties
1,437 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 72¢- Esports
+16 pts
side won 87% of 548 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +15%
- MLB
+19 pts
side won 92% of 90 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +13%
- Other Sports
+13 pts
side won 89% of 152 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 71% of 14 at an average 75¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 64% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 78% of 528)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 90% of 863)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.