Consensus PnL -$101K · win rate 61% (205–129, n=334) · was PM monthly #998 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-100.8K
Record
205W / 129L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 334 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1124
Source
PM monthly #998
Trades
145
Markets
372
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.6K · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $230 · now 11¢ · in at 10¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
299 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 66¢- Esports
+10 pts
side won 80% of 142 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +10%
- Soccer
+17 pts
side won 85% of 13 · avg entry 67¢
ROI −32%
- MLB
+9 pts
side won 82% of 17 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 61% of 38 at an average 65¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 22% of 36)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 50% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 67% of 58)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 93% of 161)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.