Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 89¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 89¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares39,929

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,677

Combined PnL-$28.77

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$1.4K	$2.3K	+$550.61	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
Contentious-Dinnerdate	Noavg 89.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$11	50% 415-417 (832)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 6.4¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$308.8	45% 112-138 (250)
AV Avamax	Noavg 88¢	$879.99	$892.99	+$10.5	81% 421-101 (522)
DI Dimpled-Foal	Noavg 94.1¢	$332.04	$313.27	-$18.77	54% 229-195 (424)
LI lissartter	Noavg 90.6¢	$249.77	$246.17	-$5.12	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
MA maxiforzaCTR	Yesavg 9.8¢	$200	$229.94	+$29.94	63% 182-109 (291)
ME melonmanmCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$180.84	$225	+$44.17	65% 527-282 (809)
DEGENKHANCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$56.89	$196.81	+$134.67	66% 1107-565 (1672)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$17.62	$76.89	+$59.27	54% 1434-1230 (2664)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$28.52	$60.05	+$31.52	74% 2792-1004 (3796)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$49.06	$44.69	-$4.38	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$5.63	$12.67	+$7.04	40% 704-1062 (1766)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.59	$1.94	+$0.19	50% 357-357 (714)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$0.43	$0.3	-$0.13	50% 1093-1094 (2187)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,398.42

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$550.61

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Contentious-Dinnerdate

Invested

$1,786

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$11

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,094.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$308.8

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

Avamax

Invested

$879.99

Value

$892.99

PnL

+$10.5

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

Dimpled-Foal

Invested

$332.04

Value

$313.27

PnL

-$18.77

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

lissartter

Invested

$249.77

Value

$246.17

PnL

-$5.12

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

maxiforzaCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$229.94

PnL

+$29.94

Record

63%

182-109 (291)

melonmanmCTR

Yes

Invested

$180.84

Value

$225

PnL

+$44.17

Record

65%

527-282 (809)

DEGENKHANCTR

Yes

Invested

$56.89

Value

$196.81

PnL

+$134.67

Record

66%

1107-565 (1672)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.62

Value

$76.89

PnL

+$59.27

Record

54%

1434-1230 (2664)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.52

Value

$60.05

PnL

+$31.52

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.06

Value

$44.69

PnL

-$4.38

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.63

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$7.04

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.59

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

710h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

30 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (6 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.4%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.