Consensus PnL $424K · win rate 73% (623–227, n=850) · was PM monthly #970 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$423.6K
Record
623W / 227L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 850 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#623
Source
PM monthly #970
Trades
125
Markets
881
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 3 WinnerTeam Spirit $2.5K · now 43¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Playoffs100 Thieves $970 · now 100¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
Specialties
767 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 57¢- Esports
+28 pts
side won 86% of 586 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +29%
- Tennis
+25 pts
side won 84% of 19 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +23%
- Crypto
+18 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 55¢
ROI −22%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 50% of 64 at an average 52¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 44% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 69% of 190)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 84% of 365)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 90% of 173)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.