Consensus PnL $4.2K · win rate 56% (320–247, n=567) · was PM monthly #992 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$4.2K
Record
320W / 247L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 567 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1393
Source
PM monthly #992
Trades
251
Markets
610
Volume
$486.4K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Real Madrid CF $404 · now 90¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (59% of 33)
- Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $205 · now 57¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (33% of 48)
Specialties
325 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 61¢- Soccer
+31 pts
side won 96% of 109 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +32%
- Tennis
+31 pts
side won 88% of 99 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +37%
- Weather
+37 pts
side won 91% of 32 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +34%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 62% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 87% of 63)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 95% of 161)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 98% of 88)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.