Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)

16 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid CF (59%) · Real Madrid CF at 89¢ · $72K held · ended Nov 1

Real Madrid CF89¢Real Racing Club11¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Real Madrid CF

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid CF 59%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.0K

Combined PnL

$6.6K

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 88.5¢

+88% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

16 of 27 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Real Madrid CF89%

Real Racing Club12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid CF16 traders

Total Value$44.6K

Total Shares73,239

Combined PnL+$8.9K

Real Racing Club11 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares56,276

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Real Madrid CF — 59%Real Racing Club — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Real Madrid CFavg 45.8¢	$10.8K	$19.7K	+$8.9K	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
TI timezonewarriorCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 59.6¢	$15.2K	$15.0K	+$219.34	45% 107-132 (239)
BU bubanana	Real Madrid CFavg 40¢	$10.4K	$10.4K	-$129.62	44% 66-83 (149)
CH chongchong37CTR	Real Racing Clubavg 58¢	$8.7K	$7.0K	$-1.6K	53% 115-102 (217)
KW kwzo	Real Madrid CFavg 89¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$33.71	46% 74-86 (160)
MI MinevaJCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 34.6¢	$6.8K	$2.3K	+$470.62	57% 1048-784 (1832)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Real Madrid CFavg 42¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$118.98	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
DA darkumbreon88	Real Madrid CFavg 41¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$19.66	65% 1758-962 (2720)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Real Racing Clubavg 59¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
└ Real Racing Club leg	Real Racing Clubavg 59¢	$990.41	$990.41	-$0
└ Real Madrid CF leg	Real Madrid CFavg 39.5¢	$673.87	$699.46	+$0
FO forecastication4	Real Madrid CFavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$18.14	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
HI hi774c	Real Madrid CFavg 40¢	$851	$851	-$10.64	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
GO goldmyname	Real Madrid CFavg 40¢	$692	$692	-$8.65	60% 146-96 (242)
AN Anon455	Real Madrid CFavg 66.3¢	$419.31	$559.74	+$146.75	55% 3009-2439 (5448)
noosh3	Real Madrid CFavg 89¢	$400	$397.75	-$2.25	52% 282-260 (542)
TO topdogbigboi	Real Madrid CFavg 60.6¢	$266.82	$386.74	+$119.92	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
RN1CTR	Real Racing Clubavg 17.3¢	$567.91	$377.97	-$189.94	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
US User7429	Real Madrid CFavg 42¢	$268.32	$338.59	+$70.27	55% 8413-6766 (15179)
heyboy800CTR	Real Racing Clubavg 59¢	$295	$292.5	-$2.5	61% 971-608 (1579)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 53.8¢	$1.1K	$256.07	-$845.36	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
SocialistaCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 61¢	$183	$177	-$6	63% 2725-1611 (4336)
0xheavy888CTR	Real Racing Clubavg 59.3¢	$356	$159	-$197	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 58.8¢	$156.01	$157.83	+$0.83	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
HRTrading	Real Madrid CFavg 54.8¢	$134.13	$147.72	+$13.59	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
GH ghorrockCTR	Real Racing Clubavg 59.3¢	$272.27	$37.22	-$161.82	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
FO foooool<$100	Real Madrid CFavg 86¢	$37.34	$36.41	-$0.92	50% 11182-10991 (22173)

GoalLineGhost

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$10,829.38

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

timezonewarriorCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$15,155.5

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$219.34

Record

45%

107-132 (239)

bubanana

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$10,379.99

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$129.62

Record

44%

66-83 (149)

chongchong37CTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$8,699.98

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

53%

115-102 (217)

kwzo

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$6,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$33.71

Record

46%

74-86 (160)

MinevaJCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$6,845.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$470.62

Record

57%

1048-784 (1832)

JAMJAMJAM4

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$1,999.2

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$118.98

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

darkumbreon88

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$1,738.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$19.66

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Real Racing Club

Invested

$1,664.27

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Both legs:

Real Racing Club$990.4159¢-$0

Real Madrid CF$673.8739.5¢+$0

forecastication4

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$1,414.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$18.14

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

hi774c

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$851

Value

$851

PnL

-$10.64

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

goldmyname

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$692

Value

$692

PnL

-$8.65

Record

60%

146-96 (242)

Anon455

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$419.31

Value

$559.74

PnL

+$146.75

Record

55%

3009-2439 (5448)

noosh3

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$400

Value

$397.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

52%

282-260 (542)

topdogbigboi

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$266.82

Value

$386.74

PnL

+$119.92

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

RN1CTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$567.91

Value

$377.97

PnL

-$189.94

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

User7429

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$268.32

Value

$338.59

PnL

+$70.27

Record

55%

8413-6766 (15179)

heyboy800CTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$295

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

61%

971-608 (1579)

UpTheBluesCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$1,101.43

Value

$256.07

PnL

-$845.36

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

SocialistaCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$183

Value

$177

PnL

-$6

Record

63%

2725-1611 (4336)

0xheavy888CTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$356

Value

$159

PnL

-$197

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$156.01

Value

$157.83

PnL

+$0.83

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

HRTrading

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$134.13

Value

$147.72

PnL

+$13.59

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

ghorrockCTR

Real Racing Club

Invested

$272.27

Value

$37.22

PnL

-$161.82

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

foooool<$100

Real Madrid CF

Invested

$37.34

Value

$36.41

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

Research grade

NeutralReal Madrid CF at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid CF

16 of 27 top traders (59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid CF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.