Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 31¢ · $794 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$794.36
$326.04
17.1¢ → 31¢
+82% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
636h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $283.22 | $543.2 | +$259.98 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 UbuntuTrading | Noavg 69¢ | $135.23 | $139.21 | +$3.98 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $41.54 | $63.01 | +$21.47 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $7 | $33.59 | +$26.03 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yes | $15.35 | $15.35 | +$14.58 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$283.22
Value
$543.2
PnL
+$259.98
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
UbuntuTradingInvested
$135.23
Value
$139.21
PnL
+$3.98
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$41.54
Value
$63.01
PnL
+$21.47
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$7
Value
$33.59
PnL
+$26.03
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$15.35
Value
$15.35
PnL
+$14.58
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.