Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$155.03

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 85.2¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL+$54.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$196.29

Total Shares1,438

Combined PnL+$100.56

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

598h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 79.9¢	$1.2K	$694.9	+$43.38	35% 19616-37164 (56780)
NO northstock	Noavg 83.1¢	$377.91	$389	+$11.09	40% 256-391 (647)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$71.58	$88.14	+$16.5	— 6-1 (7)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.2¢	$0.87	$35.46	+$34.59	45% 3027-3720 (6747)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$9.04	$26.76	+$17.72	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.9	$25.6	+$24.7	55% 3188-2644 (5832)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.18	$13.94	+$13.92	40% 6642-10042 (16684)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.9¢	$13.28	$6.4	-$6.88	53% 8682-7790 (16472)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,207.01

Value

$694.9

PnL

+$43.38

Record

35%

19616-37164 (56780)

northstock

Invested

$377.91

Value

$389

PnL

+$11.09

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.58

Value

$88.14

PnL

+$16.5

Record

—

6-1 (7)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$35.46

PnL

+$34.59

Record

45%

3027-3720 (6747)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.04

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$17.72

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$25.6

PnL

+$24.7

Record

55%

3188-2644 (5832)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$13.94

PnL

+$13.92

Record

40%

6642-10042 (16684)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.28

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$6.88

Record

53%

8682-7790 (16472)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

598h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.7%

85.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.