Consensus PnL -$19K · win rate 63% (24–14, n=38) · was PM monthly #934 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-19.4K
Record
24W / 14L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 38 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1046
Source
PM monthly #934
Trades
59
Markets
49
Volume
$54.7K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 4 on the consensus side (0%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?No $1.1K · now 26¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?No $561 · now 6¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes $65 · now 14¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No $24 · now 1¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 85¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where petehegseth's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 79%(won 100% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.