Saudi Arabia military action against Iran by December 31, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 67%
$2.1K
$48.36
83.5¢ → 86.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 87%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
462h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 85.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$19.09 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 80.6¢ | $572.29 | $617.79 | +$34.84 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
 Porx | Noavg 82¢ | $132.85 | $140.95 | +$6.48 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 petehegsethCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.4¢ | $81.2 | $65.26 | -$13.6 | 60% 26-17 (43) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $13 | $14 | +$1.5 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.35 | +$0.05 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
UdonsanInvested
$1,193.81
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$19.09
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$572.29
Value
$617.79
PnL
+$34.84
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
PorxInvested
$132.85
Value
$140.95
PnL
+$6.48
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
petehegsethCTR<$100Invested
$81.2
Value
$65.26
PnL
-$13.6
Record
60%
26-17 (43)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$13
Value
$14
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.